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BRICS reefer trade poised for growth
New from JOC.com
Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa gathered in India last week to forge stronger trade ties between their countries, and the big winner is likely to be refrigerated shipments out of Brazil.
The weakness of Brazil’s currency, the large array of foodstuffs the tropical nation exports, and growing BRICS demand for meat and fruit from the country foreshadow a potential boom in Brazil’s reefer trade. That demand growth has the most potential in China, India, and Russia.
Brazilian beef exports to China are up 502 percent in the first six months of the year, according to the Brazilian Beef Exporters Association. In the 12 months to Aug. 16, 2015, China imported 12,000 twenty-foot-equivalent units of beef from Brazil, while Hong Kong imported 14,000 TEUs, according to the analyst Datamar, with many of those boxes making their way to provinces in southern China. During that same period, China imported 33,500 TEUs of poultry and Hong Kong unloaded 20,000 TEUs of the white meat.
Growth in beef exports to China is likely to accelerate, as Chinese beef consumption is expected to rise 1 kilogram (2.2 pounds) annually to 5.5 kilograms by 2020. If this forecast holds, Brazilian beef exports could double over the next four years. Brazilian beef exports in 2015 amounted to 1.4 million metric tons, a decline of 9 percent year-over-year.
“First-half trade with BRICS partners was largely disappointing because Brazilian demand for imports fell to historically low levels, but this scenario is already changing,”
Competition for this cargo, much of which will travel via Asia-east coast South America routes, will be concentrated between CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Hamburg Sud, Maersk, and Mediterranean Shipping Co.
Maersk serves China and India with a weekly service from Brazil with calls in Shanghai and Ningbo in China and Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust, Mundra, and Kolkata in India.
As with all the major trades, the Asia-ECSA trade has spent 2014 and 2015 overwhelmed by capacity and low rates. Unlike those trades, however, ECSA freight rates have come roaring back in 2015.
While 18 months ago there were six ECSA services, there are now only three. When there were six services, a box could reportedly move from Shanghai to Santos on the spot market for as little as $50, but the service cuts have had an impact, and one recent spot quote for Shanghai to Santos on Oct. 14 was $2,200. Rates in the opposite direction, from Santos to Shanghai, are also said to be on the up.
Another bright spot for Brazilian exports in addition is scrap metal to China and wood products and pulp to India.
“The price of scrap metal has gone up considerably and we started shipping it out to India to fill containers on the backhaul to India,” said Joao Batista Momesso, director, trade and marketing, Maersk Line Mercosur.
